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Cross-border parcel volumes up, order value down following Brexit

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Author: Andy Mulcahy, Editor, IMRG & eCommerce Worldwide

 

The latest IMRG MetaPack UK Delivery Index, reporting June data, found possible early signs of the impact of the UK’s decision to leave the EU.

 

The index, which tracks UK online retail order volumes, was up a fairly solid +10.3% year-on-year in June 2016 (building on a strong +22.8% in June 2015), but it was in the orders that were being despatched cross-border that the interesting information can be identified. We have to keep in mind that the vote was on 23 June, so the results here only contain one week of post-Brexit decision data, but the proportion of orders leaving the UK (for both EU and non-EU destinations) reached almost 27% – the highest June figure in the five-year history of the Index.

 

Following the referendum vote, the value of sterling dipped sharply against the euro and the dollar, hitting a 30-year low against the latter. This makes purchasing from UK retailers appealing to shoppers in the US and EU, and the data suggests they took advantage of this development.

 

Further evidence for this can be seen in the average order values (AOV) for parcels going cross-border. Before June, 2016 had been notable for continuing increases in the overall AOV (for both domestic and cross-border orders), but this trend was reversed in June when both EU and non-EU order values fell by an average of -13% from May.

 

In June, the AOV for EU orders dropped -21% and non-EU almost -29% compared with June 2015.

 

We will gain a clearer picture when we get July’s data in and have a full month’s post-Brexit data to analyse – so we can see whether this is a temporary occurrence or the establishment of a new trend.

 

You can view further information about the IMRG MetaPack UK Delivery Index on the IMRG site.

 

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